Warmer Air to Return…and I Feel Like an ER Doc Sometimes!
Hey folks…happy Monday to all and what a beautiful start to the week it was across Central and Eastern Kentucky. I guess you could say we’ve been living right around here the last several days considering: A) Saturday rocked with temperatures in the 70s, B) we managed to miss out on any major problems with severe weather on Sunday, C) Today was tremendous with all the sunshine and pleasant highs into the upper 50s and low 60s, and finally D) we get a bonus day of warmth as highs should head for the 70s again into Tuesday. What more could you ask for??? Well…enjoy it while we have it since it looks like we’ll have to take a few steps back late this week and into the weekend with our temperatures. But let’s worry about that a couple of days down the road….first the good stuff!
Thanks to a quick area of high pressure to our north, enough dry air worked in to provide a great looking Monday. Luckily we didn’t see any big push of colder air so temperatures managed to stay respectable through the afternoon hours Monday…and it will only get better Tuesday, if only for 1 day! A warm front to our southwest will head this way into early Tuesday so while temperatures should fall off to around 50 degrees during the early part of the overnight, I think we’ll come up a hair into the low and mid 50s by daybreak Tuesday with the front scooting through the state.
The proverbial flood gates for the warmer air will be open as a southwest wind cranks up during the day, and we get into the warm sector of our next weathermaker (warm to our north, low pressure to the northwest, cold front to our west). Winds will be gusty…on the order of 30-40 miles per hour at times (stop me if you’ve heard that before around here lately) but the combo of some sun and the wind should have us dancing into the low and mid 70s by late afternoon…all is good in the world…at least on Tuesday.
The big concern with this next system is the storm threat, which should hold off until late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. While there is an isolated storm threat during the late afternoon Tuesday, I really think we have little to worry about in that regard when the sun is up. The NAM and GFS from this mornings 12z runs actually are pretty close with their timing of what should be a line of thunderstorms rolling through here close to sunrise Wednesday. Obviously you have to take these with a grain of salt as far as the timing goes…I’m just trying to illustrate they are both on board!
NAM Wednesday morning
GFS Wednesday morning
The other aspect of this is the severe thunderstorms threat. Right now the SPC doesn’t have the area under a Slight risk for Tuesday night and into Wednesday. I’m sure they are banking on a weakening line of storms coming through here given that it will be the middle of the night/very early morning. One word of caution here: It is easy to get lulled into that way of thinking sometimes and just remember what happened a week ago on Friday morning. Line of storms out to our west was expected to weaken overnight…and it hung in there like a champ with a slew of warnings here in Central and Eastern Kentucky as a result. The wind fields just above the surface should be rolling nicely ahead of the front so it may not take much to get those to the surface as the storms come through. Again…file that in your mental rolodex for future use!!!
SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook
Once the front gets through here Wednesday, the colder air will finally return for awhile…it is early/mid March after all and we’ll have to watch for the potential of some wintry weather late this week IF the front checks up for enough to the north. I’m not saying that is going to happen…just something to keep an eye on late this week since we may be dang close with a wave of low pressure scooting by to our south on Friday. In fact the southern branch looks more active into the weekend, but by then it should mainly be a cool rain…again it should be but we’ll see. Here is the GFS for this Friday afternoon as an example.
GFS Friday afternoon
Not to work everyone into a shoot or anything, but I hate what the GFS and Canadian are kicking out in the long term right now for the early/middle part of next week. Granted it is several days away but after basking in the euphoria of warmth the last few days…I’m done with this winter weather non-sense….I really am!!! That being said, here is the GFS and Canadian for NEXT Tuesday morning, March 17. For those that are confused by the model maps (and I hear from the silent majority on occasion) if it verified we’d be back in the snow and cold again…at least for a day or so.
GFS Tuesday morning March 17
Canadian Tuesday morning March 17
I was reminded of a few things over the weekend related to my life and my job. While I’ve known these for quite some time, every once and awhile situations or circumstances confirm these for me…and most of the time I just shake my head and move on.
First…many times my job feels like being an ER doc…Only without the blood! It’s hectic, it’s challenging, and you seem to be on-call 24/7!!! Of course it’s not quite that extreme, but these severe weather events over the weekend can really be a thorn in the side of any meteorologist if you are trying to rest and recover!!! The cruel reality is that this is part of the job…and you know what you are getting into when you jump into the deep end of the pool with this business. I guess the reason it kind of hit me again on Sunday was that I had planned on just chilling out with the family all day…but all I did was watch the radar and the like…just knowing I’d end up coming into work at some point. Luckily I didn’t have to, but the time the all clear was sounded…the day was done. Such is life in this crazy world of TV weather!
The other confirmation is that I truly believe the only way to ever really get rest with small children around is to jet off to some Caribbean island with your spouse for a few days!!! This morning was a classic example of why I know this is true. I will say we had an awesome Saturday…hectic but awesome. The weather had plenty to do with that, but we were all gassed by the end of the day. I love the time change once it gets going, but I hate it on the front end! Between a bit of a head cold and knowing I was dissed one hour of zzzzzs Saturday night, I laid there for what seemed like forever before dozing off…several hours after most turn into pumpkins!
So by the time I was ready to hit the sack last night…I was ripe for the picking…and ready for a long winters nap!!! I remember thinking to myself as I shut the light off about 12:30am, “Man this rocks…I can get a full nights sleep before getting up to run in the morning!” Of course that thought alone was the kiss of death!!! Fast forward 4 and a half hours to 5am local time…daughter number 3 decides she is ready to get the day started early…and she is having none of going back to sleep. I wake up hoping it is some kind of sick April Fools Day joke…only I realize we are a few weeks short of that! What stymied me the most was that it actually should have been 4am, if not for the time change so what the @#$% was she up at that hour for???
For some odd reason I was in my team player mode and decided to take one for it…so daughter number 3 and I arrived downstairs way, way before sunrise. I got her settled in the other room, and watched a bit of our morning show…which is never a goal of mine considering the shift I work. A few minutes later, I started watching 3 minutes March Madness video clips On Demand of the greatest finishes from the NCAA tourney. I had that moment again where I thought, “What the heck am I watching, what time is it, and where am I?” Your kids are a blessing no doubt about it, but I’ve truly discovered lately why “weekend getaways” were created. Anyone that wants to start to a “Caribbean Island Fund”… you have my blessing (just kidding of course)!!!
Enjoy the rest of your Monday and we’ll talk soon.
That’s all for now!
T.G.
- Temp: 34°F
- Wind Chill: 29°F
- Humidity: 100%
- Wind: E at 5 mph
- Dew Point: 34°F
- Barometer: 29.77" Hg (1008 hPa)
- Clouds: overcast
- Conditions: light rain & mist
- Visibility: 3 miles
- Sunrise: 07:35 Eastern Standard Time
- Sunset: 18:10 Eastern Standard Time
- Gathered at: 09:54 2010-02-09 Eastern Standard Time
March 9th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
i’d take the palm tree over the weather maps next week tg. we’ll be watching the skies again tommorow night.
zx14: the last storm went further east in large part to the dimishing la-nina i don’t the southern ridge and extensive drought will be a big of a concern this summer with no la-nina.
March 9th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Welllll….I will believe the snow when I see it on the ground. I don’t trust those maps anymore.
March 9th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Good afternoon TG and everyone. TG, you never fail to give me a chuckle when you do a Monday update! I love hearing about you and the kids on the weekends. I guess I enjoy it so much because I have been there, done that. To tell you the truth, I am glad that mine are grown! right now, all I have to worry about is a June wedding.
As far as the weather goes, we got up to 67 here this afternoon. Tomorrow, our local forecast is calling for our highs to be into the upper 70s! Wow! But, that is March weather. I guess after the front passes, the temps go back to reality, huh? Oh well, it as been good while it has lasted, anyway.
I hope we do not get severe storms as the front moved through. I have an appointment for an xray at 7:15 Wednesday morning! Don’t want to fight storms to get there! Ugh! You are not the only one who is mentioning the possibility of winter weather, either…..your buddy Chris has mentioned it, too, and he is no happier about it than you are, TG.
If it meant a good snow for us here in the southern part of the state, then I might say OK! But, most likely we will get rain out of any system anyway, so, maybe it will stay warm enough for that, anyway.
Oh well, get out and enjoy this evening and tomorrow, since after taht, the tease will be over for a little while. Everyone have a good evening, and thanks for the update, TG. I know you will keep us posted on the upcoming front. thanks again for the Monday chuckle!
March 9th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
TG, got a question for you…..have been looking at maps, and etc, and I am seeing some rain trying to sneak into the state from the southwest. Do you think that anything will come of that, or is it just some hit or miss stuff?
I also saw a good batch out to our northwest. Is that part of the system we are expecting, or just a front runner for it? How big is the system we are expecting? Thanks in advance for your (or anyone’s) answer!